A thesis presented by D. Stephen Voss to the College of Arts and Sciences in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Department of Government, Harvard University
Committee: Gary King (chair), James Alt, Brad Palmquist
Defended: February 25, 2000
Abstract:
Presents an intensive exploration of American racial politics, particularly the fatalistic view that polarization is greatest when two ethnic groups appear in close proximity (the "white backlash" or "group threat" hypothesis). Combining survey analysis with an ecological study of recent Southern voting returns (using Gary King's solution to the ecological inference problem), I show that the density of African-American population in a community does not influence racial views or political coalitions in a consistent manner. Rather, heterogeneity operates differently depending upon social and historical context. In particular, the traditional proximity pattern is reversed in urban areas. Predominantly white suburbs and small towns host a "white middle class" subculture generally at odds with minorities, especially when they reside close enough to appear threatening but not close enough for cultural exchange. Whites who still reside in the urban landscape, by contrast, generally are closer to the attitudes, interests, and behavior of other races or ethnic groups. The clear but complex geographical pattern nevertheless contradicts purely psychological or "symbolic" approaches to racial conflict. Racial attitudes may build on ignorance and stereotype, yet they are tied to rational group conflict, an arrangement of social forces that is politically and geographically meaningful.
Dedicated to Kathleen J. Elliott, who sacrificed much more than I did for this. Click here to see the acknowledgments.
Chapter 1 - Introduction
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An Outline
Chapter 2 - Backlash Politics: Product of the Black Belt Soil Adobe PDF
The Key Hypothesis
Racial Density: An Implication Too Easily Observed
Politically Motivated Discrimination: Studying Voter Registration and Turnout
Conclusion
Chapter 3 - The Threat of Proximity: Variations on a Theme in V.O. Key Adobe PDF
Racial Discrimination and White Backlash
"Whitelash": The Nationalization of Southern Politics
Racial Attitudes and the White Backlash
Conclusion
Chapter 4 - Fear of a Black...What, Exactly? Adobe PDF
The Nature of Competition: Race Relations Through Successive Filters
The Spoils of Competition
The Role of Proximity in Southern Political Development
Conclusion
Chapter 5 - The Political Geography of Racial Polarization Adobe PDF
Competing Narratives: A Finalized Framework
Conclusion
List of Tables and Figures
Table 2-1: Backlash Studies in Southern Politics Through the 1960's 33
Table 5-1: Observable Implications of Proximity Effects 107
Table 6-1: Wallace's 1968 Louisiana Vote 118
Table 7-1: Wallace's 1968 Vote with Race Registration 133
Table 7-2: Estimating Registration Rates in 1968 134
Figure 7-1: Tomography Plot for Louisiana Registration, 1968 137
Table 7-3: Statewide 1968 Registration Estimates 141
Figure 7-2: EI's Success Estimating With Poor Data 143
Figure 7-3: Louisiana's 1968 Turnout Easier to Predict 146
Figure 7-4: Ultimate 1968 Louisiana Turnout Estimates 148
Table 7-4: Estimated 1991 Open Primary Turnout 154
Figure 7-5: County-Level Predictive Accuracy 157
Table 8-4: Observable Implications Tested by a Status-Gap Interaction 180
Figure 8-1: Effect of Urbanization on the Racial Threat Coefficient 197
Figure 8-2: White-Backlash Pattern in the North Louisiana Hills 198
Table 8-1: Beyond the Giles and Buckner Backlash Model 199
Table 8-2: Voting in Metropolitan Statistical Areas 200
Table 8-3: Aggregate Estimates of the Regional Duke Vote 201
Table 8-5: Reconciling the Interactive Hypotheses 202
Table 8-6: Developing the Cultural Backlash Approach 203
Table 9-1: The 1992 Congressional Elections in Georgia 227
Table 9-2: The 1996 Congressional Elections in Georgia & Florida 228
Table 9-3: White Voting in 1996 Statewide Elections 229
Table 9-4: White Voting in 1992 Presidential Elections 230
Table 9-5: Aggregation Bias in 1996 Turnout and Vote 231
Table 9-6: Aggregation Bias in 1992 Turnout and Vote 232
Figure 9-1: Contextual Effects on Precinct-Level White Voting 233
Figure 10-2: Indirect Bias (By Black Education Rates) 242
Figure 10-3: A Mirror-Image of the Backlash Pattern 248
Table 10-1: Incidental Black Support for Segregation, 1996 254
Table 10-2: County-Level Model of the Black Segregation Vote 255
Table 10-3: Predicting the County-Level Vote for Segregation 256
Figure 10-1: Aggregation Bias in Vote Estimates: Direct Bias (By Racial Density) 257
Table 11-1: Predicting White Theories of Blame 289
Table 11-2: CLARIFYing the Probabilities for Standard of Living 290
Table 11-3: Predicting Unfavorable Ethnic Comparisons 291
Table 11-4: CLARIFYing the Probabilities for Ethnic Comparison 292
Table 11-5: Elaborated Ethnic Comparisons 293
Table 11-6: Suburban Resentment of Urban Aid 294
Table 11-7: Admitting Racial Tensions in a Polarized Country 295
Table 11-8: Who Sees Racism? Solving a Puzzle 296
Table 11-9: Fear of Other Minorities as Well? 297
Table 11-10: Racial Conservatism on a Policy Question 298
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