Demographic Transitions &
Ecological Impacts

I.                    Environmental Justice:

a.     1968:
Erlich and ‘The Population Bomb’

b.    Harvey and the nature of subsistence

c.      Population versus Consumption, in other words:

                                           i.     Global: national consumption versus per capital consumption, how should a burden be calculated?

                                        ii.     US: Rich versus Poor: Should there be limits to resource consumption?
For instance, should CO2 offsets be required or consumption capped?

II.                Contemporary situation:

a. Population maps (from worldmapper)

1960

2030

1500

b.                  Figures from reading, Table 2.1: growth less than expected, Figure 2.1, growth declining

c. Figure 2.4: population pyramids, differences between mature and growing populations

I. Trends and Pyramids: What we would like to see for a sustainable population dynamic

Hanging Fertility is a condition of many Third World Countries. crude birth lower, but the final reduction to replacement fertility is problematic.

First World historic transitions

Contemporary Global South situation

In many instances Crude Fertility is increased beyond historic European Levels

Critique of Pyramids

1. What is the method and ideology behind ideas of population growth?

Malthus: food access = population growth

Ricardo: wages = population growth

Marx: class struggle = population growth

Paths to a Sustainable Population

a. Maurice King— Cut off aid to children's health programs
(neo-Malthusian)

b. Empower women and raise living standards
(Ricardo or Marx)

Maurice King's Demographic Trap

Demographic trap, births so exceed deaths as to lead to a high mortality rate, classic neo‑Malthusian position. His answer: eliminate projects to save children,

push for 'one-child' families, no matter how coerced.

Responses:

1. Sundström: King's thesis does not accord with historic evidence

Sweden achieved a fall in population growth far before modern contraceptives were available. One must look to the reasons why people want to control family size, not to methods of increasing the death rate or forced sterilization.

2. Health Care doesn't lead to population explosion

Cuba demographics: poor but stable

3. Doesn't explain historically high Sub-Saharan African crude birth rates

Kenya, Bungoma: Monetarization of economy more important locally

4. Birth Rates tied to Death rates, World Bank studies indicate at least 100/1000 infant mortality necessary for women to accept lower family sizes. Environmental Perception

Empower Women and Increase Development Possibilities